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The coronavirus crisis has punished the blameless across the world this year. That includes investors who did the supposed "right thing," by keeping a balanced portfolio to fund long-term gains, just as the experts advise.
In fact, near the worst of the stock sell-off bonds were not offsetting the losses by rallying, as everything but cash was liquidated. Those months were all within months of the trough of major bear markets, though in each case the ultimate low for the stock indexes was still to come.
Batnick calculates that in those three instances in , and , it took between 10 and 20 months for this portfolio to recover back to its peak level.
This is perhaps comforting, if not terribly surprising. Any investment discipline that triggers a move to take advantage of steep underperformance in one asset classes tends to be rewarded over time.
And rebalancing after big declines in a blended-asset portfolio has generally been about buying nasty breaks in stock indexes.
On a more opportunistic, shorter-term basis, strategist Terry Gardner of C. Goldman Sachs strategists last week sounded a cautious note on this front last week with regard to the present market skid.
So perhaps the traditional asset mix will get less help over time from bond yields squeezing lower in tough times barring a move to negative yields, which would create a whole other set of issues.
Still, bonds can still serve the role as cushion against equity losses. The entire issue of rebalancing is hardly just an academic issue. Of course, to the extent that this mechanical reallocation is timed to the quarter's end, it means one short-term tailwind for the rebound rally has just about abated, as the market bounce leaves the indexes less stretched and investors have celebrated fresh trillions of dollars in support from the Federal Reserve and Congress.
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